Every race. Every result. Published.
Our full historical performance for Australian thoroughbred flat racing. Including losing months. We publish everything.
Top Pick Win Rate
15.6%
2,798 races
Value Bet ROI
+24.1%
Lifetime, incl. losing months
Races Analysed
2,798
July 2025 – March 2026
Features / Runner
79+
XGBoost model
Last 30 Days — Live
Rolling performance updated continuously as new results settle.
58.4%
Model Accuracy
+14.2%
ROI
Monthly Breakdown
July 2025 – March 2026| Month | Races | Win Rate | Value Bet ROI | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2025 | 245 | 15.5% | +20.7% | |
| Aug 2025 | 312 | 17.9% | +43.6% | |
| Sep 2025 | 326 | 15.6% | +76.3% | |
| Oct 2025 | 339 | 11.5% | -23.6% | |
| Nov 2025 | 354 | 20.1% | +172.0% | |
| Dec 2025 | 306 | 14.1% | +8.0% | |
| Jan 2026 | 359 | 15.9% | +97.3% | |
| Feb 2026 | 305 | 15.7% | +66.7% | |
| Mar 2026 | 252 | 12.7% | -31.4% |
Including losing months. We publish everything.
The industry is full of selectively reported tips. We publish the full dataset — October 2025 and March 2026 were losing months. That's the reality of probabilistic betting, and you deserve to see it before deciding whether to trust the model.
Methodology
The Racin ML model is an XGBoost classifier + ranker trained on historical Australian thoroughbred flat-race data. It analyses 79+ engineered features per runner, including recent form, weight carried, barrier draw, class changes, track condition preferences, jockey and trainer strike rates, jockey-trainer combination history, distance aptitude, days since last start, and real-time market odds movements.
Predictions are walk-forward validated to prevent data leakage. Value bets are flagged when the model's predicted probability exceeds the implied market odds by 20% or more. Kelly-criterion sizing caps single-race exposure at 5% of bankroll (quarter-Kelly) and is gated by Monte Carlo simulation.
All figures on this page are from genuine backtests run against historical data. Live rolling 30-day metrics are computed from resolved predictions and refresh continuously.
See today's picks — free
Saturday metro races free forever. Unlock all 50+ weekly AU meetings on Pro — $49/month, or $470/year (save 20%).